Forum:2011 Atlantic hurricane season/Rolf
01M.ROLF 99L.INVEST I came home from school today to find this. If you look closely..this invest is in..THE MEDITERRANEAN! This low is extratropical, but as 98L above (likely to be Sean), once they start to transition to subtropical, they transition quickly and this could..possibly transition before landfall. Yqt1001 20:10, November 7, 2011 (UTC) Tropical Storm Rolf According to NOAA, it is a tropical storm. Major Hurricane '' 20:19, November 7, 2011 (UTC) :I'm not so sure. But whatever this is...this storm will be definitely getting close to beating Arani of this year for #1 of oddest storm formation. Rather amazing considering how rare Arani was. Yqt1001 20:24, November 7, 2011 (UTC) :FU-Berlin named this storm Rolf last Friday. ''Major Hurricane '' 20:32, November 7, 2011 (UTC) ::There has never been a Catarina-like storm here, but I don't expect much from it even if there is rain associated with this in the areas it does affect. Still, this is bizzare. 'Ryan1000' 20:39, November 7, 2011 (UTC) ::Would have been amazing if this would have been name Sean or Tammy but Rolf is a good name alsoAllanjeffs 20:44, November 7, 2011 (UTC) :::They named a storm before it even formed? Rather interesting.. will be interesting to see how the NHC reacts at 4pm/7pm, if they react at all. But considering they are in charge of the NAtl, I believe that they should be required to do something, even if it means pulling a 93L and calling this storm too disorganized and a non-tropical gale instead of naming/numbering it (if it does indeed develop subtropical characteristics). Although NOAA is an official source, I don't believe that this should be called tropical storm 01M just yet. Maybe later today just to see if the NHC does something. Yqt1001 20:45, November 7, 2011 (UTC) :::Wow!Cyclone10Talk 20:47, November 7, 2011 (UTC) ::::The system formed on November 4 (Friday) and the NHC confirmed earlier that they would not officially name it. ''Major Hurricane '' 20:49, November 7, 2011 (UTC) :::::Really? Aww...though I would like a source since I cannot find one. Yqt1001 20:50, November 7, 2011 (UTC) ::::::Can't find one either.Cyclone10Talk 20:58, November 7, 2011 (UTC) ::::::I saw it earlier, but cannot find it again. ''Major Hurricane '' 21:04, November 7, 2011 (UTC) :::::::I think this hurricane season is the most oddest we ever observed in recent times, at least. We had plenty of weird storms, but this is the most oddest thing. :::::::The NHC, however, cannot name this thing because the are not authorized to do that. AFAIK the operational area of the RSMC Miami is among other borders delimited to the North Atlantic west of Greenwich. They just don't have the autority to name the system. -- 23:34, November 7, 2011 (UTC) ::::::::Yeah, that seems to be what is going on. Too bad, but it still is an official Mediterranean cyclone, which makes it the first one ever recorded. Now here comes the people who want the Mediterranean Sea to get it's own cyclone basin. (that or merge it into the NHC) ;) Yqt1001 00:05, November 8, 2011 (UTC) :::::::::I thought of merging with Meteo-France. The storm looks better than ever.Cyclone10Talk 00:08, November 8, 2011 (UTC) ::::::::::88, most oddest isn't an expression... :P Anyways, whatever is done with this, it will likely go down as one of the strangest storms in history, and perhaps the first ever in the Meditteranean, or one of only a few. 'Ryan1000' 00:34, November 8, 2011 (UTC) Ok, so I see where this came from. This developed from a low pressure which became "Windstorm Rolf" according to FU-Berlin. At some point last night it got tropical characteristics, and a weather bureau in Europe started issuing advisories on Tropical Storm Rolf. Sometime today UKMET (I believe) requested the ATCF to make Rolf an Atlantic invest so they could get Dvorak info, model runs and a imagery page on the navy site, even though technically the Mediterranean is part of UKMETs area and has nothing to do with the NHC. I'm not sure who is allowed to post advisories on Rolf though. Yqt1001 00:35, November 8, 2011 (UTC) There's no RSMC in the Meditteranean or South Atlantic because they are not official tropical cyclone basins. There are weather offices(like the Brazilian weather office which named Catarina), but it's not an official RSMC like the JMA or NHC, ect. I wouldn't be upset with accepting the name "Rolf", but I still don't know if that's what it should officially be called. 'Ryan1000' 00:49, November 8, 2011 (UTC) I've always been extremely dubious about these Mediterranean storms. Personally, I think it's a lot of BS. Polar lows love to mascarade as subtropical/tropical cyclones. Notice that most Med storms happen during fall and winter. The water up there is about 60 degrees up there right now. There is some data that seems to indicate some sort of a warm core. I've been sold on South Atlantic storms, I have yet to be sold on Med storms. Dr. Dick Pasch wrote a very interesting piece on Med storms several years ago, specifically highlighting the famous January, 1995 event, and one of the things he talked about was how those polar lows can be very deceiving, particularly up around Europe, but also along the Great Lakes. These lows often assume a very tropical-like structure and can even develop something of a warm core despite the fact that they are otherwise non-tropical. This phenomenon has stirred a lot of debate about what exactly is tropical, subtropical, and non-tropical. Where do you draw the line? Med storms in particular love to blur the lines. One thing Caterina had was NHC and NOAA endorsement. Some of you seem to think that this one has official endorsement, including from NOAA. Link please. -- [[User:SkyFury|Sky]][[User talk:SkyFury|Fury]] 02:06, November 8, 2011 (UTC) I think this is a lot of evidence that this is indeed tropical ::::It is rather doubtful, but NOAA having Tropical Storm 01M on their website is the only form of confirmation we'll get. Also, water is 70F at the storm's center. Yqt1001 04:15, November 8, 2011 (UTC) ::::Once FU-Berlin name European systems, the names get used around the world (well only on severe systems) like Kyrill. --''Major Hurricane '' 13:08, November 8, 2011 (UTC) Dr. Jeff Masters from Wunderground has said that Rolf is likely a hybrid low, which I fully agree with. Satellite estimates are only calling this tropical because of the deep convective banding. This is probably a subtropical cyclone with winds in the range of 40-45mph, but also could be a polar low. Still interesting nonetheless. However he also said that water temperature only has to increase about 3C mroe until we can get fully tropical cyclones developing here, so we will probably get quite a bit more storms like this in the next couple decades. Yqt1001 20:10, November 8, 2011 (UTC) It has a warm core, but is over 19C waters. ''Major Hurricane '' 21:44, November 8, 2011 (UTC) Just so we can hit the edit button easier...Anyway, I think 2011 is the ONLY year to have both a South Atlantic tropical cyclone (Arani) and a "Medi-cane" (Rolf). '04L. ''' 21:53, November 8, 2011 (UTC) :Weather stations in France are reporting 104km/h sustained winds (not sure if 10min or 1min). Also sounds like France has implemented a storm category called "TMS" or "Tropical-like Mediterranean Storm" just to prepare for this storm...I must admit, I like that idea a lot. ASCAT pass of Rolf: http://manati.orbit.nesdis.noaa.gov/ascat_images/cur_50km/zooms/WMBas36.png Yqt1001 00:07, November 9, 2011 (UTC) ::Rolf has made landfall and is now gone, nothing more than a low level swirl and a bit of convection remains...not sure if they are still issuing updates, but the official highest windspeed of this storm was 50mph and they say that the60mph sustained winds in France were only temporary. Yqt1001 01:31, November 9, 2011 (UTC) Remnants of Rolf And gone as soon as it touched land.Cyclone10Talk 01:53, November 9, 2011 (UTC) Its not gone yet, and has not touched land. ''Major Hurricane '' 08:38, November 9, 2011 (UTC) :Now it has gone. ''Major Hurricane '' 22:15, November 9, 2011 (UTC)